Predictions: Crankworx Rotorua Slopestyle

Crankworx Rotorua runs from March 11 to March 15 at Skyline Rotorua, with Slopestyle in Memory of McGazza serving as the second stop of the 2026 Slopestyle Super League season. That gives this weekend extra weight. Early points matter in every title race, but Diamond events can shift the standings quickly and create separation before the middle of the season.

In the men’s field, the WhoRanked model puts Dawid Godziek in first. His 89 ASPI is the highest number in the lineup, which makes him the statistical favorite coming into Rotorua. He is followed closely by Erik Fedko on 87 and Timothé Bringer on 86, which points to a tightly packed top tier rather than a runaway favorite.

Fedko enters Rotorua with one of the strongest recent form signals after leaving Christchurch as the Slopestyle Super League standings leader. Bringer brings different value to the contest. He won Rotorua last year, which gives him proven event-specific pedigree on this course. That makes the men’s competition especially balanced, with current form, course history, and model strength all pointing in slightly different directions.

The next layer of contenders adds even more depth. Tobey Miley and Chance Moore round out the model’s top five, while Lucas Huppert and Dane Folpp sit just behind them. Nicholi Rogatkin remains one of the most experienced names in the field and could still outperform his current projection if execution becomes the deciding factor.

The women’s contest looks more unusual. Johanna Nußbaumer is the model’s projected winner, ahead of Alma Wiggberg and Robin Goomes. That stands out because Goomes owns the highest ASPI in the women’s field at 84, yet is still forecast in third. The model is clearly seeing more than raw ceiling alone and appears to be favoring a specific competition profile for Rotorua.

That makes Shealen Reno one of the most interesting riders to watch. She won Christchurch and leads the current SSL standings, but the prediction places her sixth this weekend. Analytically, that is the sharpest call in the forecast. It suggests Rotorua may produce a different result pattern than the opening stop and that the women’s field could be more volatile than the current standings imply.

Robin Goomes also adds an important variable. She did not race Christchurch, but Rotorua gives her a chance to enter the season at a venue closer to home with the best ASPI number in the women’s field. If she rides to that ceiling, third may prove conservative rather than accurate.

Overall, the projection suggests two different contest shapes. The men’s field looks compressed, with multiple realistic winners separated by only small statistical margins. The women’s field looks less predictable, with the model backing Nußbaumer over both the highest-ASPI rider and the current SSL leader. If that forecast holds, Rotorua could become the first major reshuffle of the 2026 slopestyle season.

Top 5 Men’s Slopestyle Predictions

• 1. Dawid Godziek, Poland, ASPI 89
• 2. Erik Fedko, Germany, ASPI 87
• 3. Timothe Bringer, France, ASPI 86
• 4. Tobey Miley, Germany, ASPI 85
• 5. Chance Moore, Canada, ASPI 82

Top 5 Women’s Slopestyle Predictions

• 1. Johanna Nußbaumer, Germany, ASPI 77
• 2. Alma Wiggberg, Sweden, ASPI 68
• 3. Robin Goomes, New Zealand, ASPI 84
• 4. Harriet Burbidge-Smith, Australia, ASPI 59
• 5. Patricia Druwen, Germany, ASPI 66

Results, rankings, stats & predictions provided by: https://wyldata.com

Play FLYP Fantasy Manager: https://play.flypfantasy.com

Article Sources: https://www.crankworx.com/rotorua/, https://www.crankworx.com/results/start-lists/, https://www.crankworx.com/data/public/1730/preliminary-start-list, https://www.crankworx.com/data/public/1731/preliminary-start-list, https://www.crankworx.com/news/slopestyle-super-league-update-standings-after-round-one/, https://www.crankworx.com/news/ready-to-ride-crankworx-rotorua-2026-is-almost-here/

Image Source: crankworx.com