Winter Olympic Predictions: Snowboard Big Air Men

Qualification is scheduled for February 5 in Livigno, with finals on February 7, the opening freestyle medal event of the Games. 

Wyldata’s model favors a Japanese sweep. Taiga Hasegawa sits first on recent big air output and conversion under pressure, including 2025 World Championships silver and multiple World Cup podiums. Second is Ryoma Kimata, a consistent high-scorer whose World Cup big air finals rate remains strong. Third is Kira Kimura, the 2023 Big Air Crystal Globe winner with sustained podium frequency into 2025–26.

The depth behind them is volatile. Rising American Oliver Martin has progressed rapidly, adding both-way 2160s and a steep improvement curve in FIS fields. China’s defending Olympic champion Su Yiming remains a podium factor; his 2025 Beijing World Cup win signaled form but his variance increases when he opens with 18s both ways. Expect Japan’s Hiroto Ogiwara to shape the final: his highest ceiling is proven, including the first 2340 landed in competition at X Games 2025.

Veteran medal threats are seeded lower by our model due to recent results. Mons Røisland’s 2025–26 big air finishes and points trend dipped, while overall form for Marcus Kleveland is stronger in slopestyle than big air lately. Both still carry final-making probabilities, but below their reputations.

Full projected ranking

1. Taiga Hasegawa, Japan
2. Ryoma Kimata, Japan
3. Kira Kimura, Japan
4. Oliver Martin, United States
5. Hiroto Ogiwara, Japan
6. Yiming Su, China
7. Ian Matteoli, Italy
8. Rene Rinnekangas, Finland
9. Rocco Jamieson, New Zealand
10. Lyon Farrell, New Zealand
11. Eli Bouchard, Canada
12. Enzo Valax, France
13. Romain Allemand, France
14. Mark McMorris, Canada
15. Wenlong Yang, China
16. Clemens Millauer, Austria
17. Øyvind Kirkhus, Norway
18. Chunyu Ge, China
19. Mons Røisland, Norway
20. Francis Jobin, Canada
21. Dane Menzies, New Zealand
22. Sean Fitzsimons, United States
23. Jakub Hrones, Czech Republic
24. Jake Canter, United States
25. Marcus Kleveland, Norway
26. Txema Mazet Brown, United Kingdom
27. Redmond Gerard, United States
28. Cameron Spalding, Canada
29. Noah Vicktor, Germany
30. Jonas Hasler, Switzerland

Contenders to watch

United States: Oliver Martin. China: Su Yiming. Japan: Hiroto Ogiwara. Canada: Mark McMorris. USA: Redmond Gerard. Norway: Mons Røisland, Marcus Kleveland. Their paths depend on trick selection risk management and wind conditions at Livigno Snow Park. Recent World Cup data shows clustered totals between second and eighth; a single make-or-miss on a 1980–2160 axis typically decides medals.

Results, rankings, stats & predictions provided by: https://wyldata.com

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Article Sources: https://milanocortina2026.coni.it/en/schedule/calendar/dettagliocalendario.html?disciplina=82, https://www.nbcolympics.com/news/how-watch-snowboard-big-air-events-2026-winter-olympics-tv-and-stream-schedule, https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/general/athlete-biography.html?competitorid=228886&sectorcode=sb&type=result, https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/general/athlete-biography.html?competitorid=205831&sectorcode=sb&type=result, https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kira_Kimura, https://www.usskiandsnowboard.org/athletes/ollie-martin, https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/general/athlete-biography.html?competitorid=235870&sectorcode=sb, https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/jan/25/hiroto-ogiwara-first-2340-big-air-x-games, https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/general/results.html?raceid=24174&sectorcode=SB

Image Source: fisparkandipe