Predictions: Lakey Peterson and Jordy Smith Lead WSL Bells Beach 2026

The prediction model points to Lakey Peterson as the women’s favorite for Rip Curl Bells Beach 2026, ahead of Gabriela Bryan, Sally Fitzgibbons, Isabella Nichols and Tyler Wright. Peterson’s projected No. 1 position stands out because Gabriela Bryan carries the highest ASPI in the women’s top five at 82, while Peterson sits on 73. That suggests the event-specific projection values more than raw rating alone.

Women’s top five prediction:

1. Lakey Peterson, United States, ASPI 73
2. Gabriela Bryan, United States, ASPI 82
3. Sally Fitzgibbons, Australia, ASPI 68
4. Isabella Nichols, Australia, ASPI 77
5. Tyler Wright, Australia, ASPI 71

The women’s list is notable for its Australian depth. Fitzgibbons, Nichols and Wright give the host nation three of the top five projected finishers, which could make Bells a key event for home-country momentum. Nichols and Wright both profile as strong threats if conditions reward experience and composure, while Fitzgibbons remains a relevant contender despite the lowest ASPI among the projected top five.

In the men’s field, Jordy Smith leads the prediction list with an ASPI of 84. Miguel Pupo, Connor O'Leary, Kanoa Igarashi and Griffin Colapinto complete the top five. Smith’s placement at No. 1 is more straightforward on paper, but the rest of the order shows how compressed the field is. Igarashi’s 78 ASPI and Colapinto’s matching 84 ASPI still leave them projected outside the top four, underlining how narrow the margins appear heading into Bells.

Men’s top five prediction:

1. Jordy Smith, South Africa, ASPI 84
2. Miguel Pupo, Brazil, ASPI 74
3. Connor O'Leary, Japan, ASPI 75
4. Kanoa Igarashi, Japan, ASPI 78
5. Griffin Colapinto, United States, ASPI 84

Japan places two surfers inside the men’s projected top four, with O'Leary and Igarashi giving that side of the draw real depth. Colapinto is arguably the most interesting name in the list because an 84 ASPI usually reads like a winning profile, yet the model still places him fifth. That makes him one of the clearest examples of a surfer who could outperform the forecast if the event breaks his way.

Overall, the Bells projections suggest two different storylines. The women’s side looks defined by a model preference for Lakey Peterson over the highest raw ASPI on the board, while the men’s side looks crowded at the top with multiple realistic contenders close together. That combination should make Bells one of the more open and analytically interesting stops on the 2026 schedule.

Results, rankings, stats & predictions provided by: https://wyldata.com

Play FLYP Fantasy Manager: https://play.flypfantasy.com

Article Sources: https://surfingvic.com/rip-curl-pro/, https://www.ripcurl.com/pages/rip-curl-pro-bells-beach, https://surfingvic.com/rip-curl-pro-bells-beach-to-open-2026-wsl-championship-tour/

Image Source: WSL